The Full Court Press

Vol 1, Issue 1

Page 7

Monday, July 31, 2006

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  • Dow Jones Continues ...

        There has been continuing criticism of the Index due to its price-weighted average. This column was drafted prior to discovering The Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Impact of Fixing Its Flaws by John B. Shoven, Stanford University and NBER, and Clemens Sialm, Stanford University, published June 29, 2000 as part of The Finance Program of The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. The paper discusses at length the authors’ conclusion that “The DJIA Has Three Major Flaws,” the first of which was that “Each company in the index is weighted by the price of its stock.” I realized this flaw before I read the article. This price-weighted average gives indexed higher-priced stocks wrongfully more clout than lower-priced ones.

        For instance, during the trading hours of May 30, 2006, the DJIA lost $184.18. However, the day’s losses of the 30 listed stocks totaled $23.01; all of the listed stocks posted losses. For an investor who purchased one share of each of the 30 stocks, his or her loss would have only totaled $23.01. However, to the world, it represented $184.18 total loss. This doesn’t make much sense, does it?

        Messrs Shoven and Sialm, after giving due credit to others who contributed to their studious work, concluded there were two other major flaws in the index, namely the stocks, “are chosen more or less arbitrarily by the Dow Jones & Co. to represent different industries, but they are not chosen according to fixed or well-defined rules,” and “the DJIA is not a total return index because it excludes dividend distributions.”

        Having covered the first flaw, we now tackle the second flaw: What then, would be a representative index , in this age of information technology and our preoccupation with drug manufacturers, oil and energy? (We’ll leave the third flaw for others to consider.)

        Short-term investors, brokerages and Wall Street analysts and stock seers live on short-term swings and volatility to earn their keep and need an up-to-date number one index.

        The critical questions to be answered in listing relevant stocks are: What businesses do we rely upon to fuel our economy, and how many categories should be represented on the index?

        According to many economic prognosticators and gurus, our economy’s foundations are housing, information technology and services, consumers, health and related industries, oil and energy and defense. These, at least, should be reasonably represented; are they?

        The first group, housing, is not included, although it could be tangentially represented by Home Depot. I’ve placed telecom services – AT&T and Verizon, diversified computer systems – IBM and Hewlett Packard, semiconductor – Intel, and application software – Microsoft, into the second group. I’ve lumped several categories into the all- encompassing consumer products and services, namely Altria – tobacco and foods, Coca-Cola – beverages, MacDonald’s – restaurants, Proctor and Gamble – consumer goods, Wal-Mart Stores – discount/variety stores, and Walt Disney Co. – entertainment. My fourth category, health and drugs, only has manufacturers represented, Johnson and Johnson, Merck and Pfizer. Exxon/Mobil solely represents oil and energy.

        My final category, defense, has Boeing Co. singularly designated as aerospace/defense, although portions of the four conglomerates listed -- 3M Co., General Electric, Honeywell International and United Technologies -- should be included in this category. Others listed may also be considered.

    Continued ...

    Reflections on the Fourth of July: Reading and living our Declaration of Independence

    By Bernard Levy

    Only Americans can hurt Americans.

    Dwight D. Eisenhower

        The July 4th has come and gone; most flags have been diligently retired in our closets. The memories of spectacular fireworks linger as do the soul-stirring music and speeches. The acrid smell of purchased “firecrackers”—many of which were probably illegal—has long been cleared by the night air, although their sounds and sights still produce fitful sleep for my pets.

        The importance of the day and the significance of our Declaration of Independence needs to remain in our hearts, souls and brains during these days of attacks on our liberties and the essences of our democratic, constitutional society established for a pluralistic nation.

        We were and still are the hope of many nations and peoples, not because we convey to the world materialistic, consumer-oriented living styles, but because we are the revolutionary success that established a relatively stable country of many nationalities, ethnicities, religions and perspectives.

        In these days of patriotic fervor and attacks on our rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, we are again called upon to stand up and be counted to defeat the outside and inside forces that challenge and jeopardize these liberties.

        Unlike most of my neighbors, I celebrate the 4th of July by reading the Declaration slowly and with gusto, applying its prescient words to today’s society. Firecrackers, fireworks and flag-waving don’t do it for me; I go directly to the genesis document of our great country to charge my patriotic batteries and connect with our country’s foundation.

        Don’t get me wrong. We put out our flag, enjoy the fireworks and get goose bumps when the veterans marching in our parade pass by. I even hold a brief memorial for my Uncle Ben, who was awarded a Medal of Honor in Word War I. But this “patriotic passion” is not enough.

        Each year’s Declaration reading brings new meanings and revelations. The filters through which we view and act out our lives are impacted by the events that have occurred since the last read.

    Continued ...

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